CFP Rankings Reaction

by Derek Lee

NCAA

The final College Football Playoff rankings are here. The 12 committee members revealed their top 12 Sunday on ESPN. This season had more debate than possibly any other year with between 4 and 6 teams fighting for the final two spots. Going into conference championship week, Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Texas and Vanderbilt all had an argument to be in. All 6 of those teams also had an argument to not be in. In the end, Miami and Alabama were the 2 teams to get the nod, and personally I believe that the committee got it right. I really don’t have many complaints about the final rankings this year, which is not a common occurrence.

I actually really agree with the committee’s top four teams and the order in which they are ranked. Indiana proved themselves to be the #1 team in the country with their win over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Ohio State rightfully dropped one spot, a 3 point loss to the #1 team in the country in a conference championship game should not penalize you. Georgia and Texas Tech stayed where they were, at #3 and #4 respectively. Throughout the second half and immediately after the Big 12 Championship Game, I wondered if Texas Tech had done enough to jump Georgia. But after Georgia throttled Alabama, they solidified themselves as the #3 seed. 

This is a very intriguing top four to me. You have two teams in Texas Tech and Ohio State who have a high flying and flashy offense. Georgia and Indiana both have very high powered offenses, for sure. But they are not as prone to big plays or known as much for flash. All four of these teams rely heavily on their defenses as well. Texas Tech may have the best defensive player in the country with Jacob Rodriguez. Ohio State hasn’t given up more than 16 points all season. Indiana ranks in the top 10 of many team defensive categories. And Georgia, although their defense is not as dominant as previous seasons, it is still a very very good Georgia defense. 

These four teams all make sense to me. And for the most part, the order does too. I could understand an argument for Oregon being lower for their strength of schedule. But the biggest factor of their ranking is that they lost early. Losing early in the CFP era is much more favorable than losing late. You can make a very real argument for Texas A&M being the 5 seed, however they lost more recently. Recency bias is a very real thing for the CFP committee. 

Between Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M  and Oklahoma, Ole Miss most likely has the best resume and best loss of the group. Sure, Oregon’s lone loss is to Indiana, however it was at home and by 10. Ole Miss lost to Georgia, in Athens, by only 8, in a game that they lead in the fourth quarter. A&M had a very real chance to win the SEC and possibly be the 1 seed prior to losing to Texas in week 12. I don’t really believe in Texas A&M, they looked really poor against Texas and have looked very vulnerable down the stretch. I would not be shocked if they are sent packing in their first round matchup against Miami. 

One thing I am incredibly excited about however, is seeing a playoff game in these home field environments. Autzen is known as being a raucous environment, and make no mistake, the IPAs will be flowing in the Dirty Eug. JMU will feel like they are trying to snap the ball in the middle of a mosh pit with how crazy the Duck faithful will be. Oxford is in need of something good. Lane Kiffin left them out to dry right be before the playoff with his escape to LSU. They are ready to rally behind their team, and they need someone to take some anger out on. I promise you, it’ll be the ears of poor Tulane Green Wave. Texas A&M always wants to act like they belong. Well, this is their chance. College Station has been waiting for games like this since Johnny Manziel was sprinting circles around defenses for the Aggies. The 100,000+ in Aggieland are ready for this and will cause some hearing damage to the Hurricanes who are not used to playing in front of large crowds. Speaking of teams who want to act like they belong, this is what Oklahoma had in mind when they joined the SEC. Brent Venables has gone from the hot seat to a hero in Norman. But is this season going to be any different than any of the previous CFP appearances? Time will tell, but the fans in Norman surely believe this is their year. 

Here is where the debate starts. Following Duke’s win in the ACC Championship, it was all but guaranteed that James Madison and Tulane would make the CFP. I think it’s incredibly ironic that in just the second year of the 12 team playoff, 2 Group of 5 conference champions make the playoff. This left 2 spots for Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Texas and Vanderbilt. Without any major chaos occurring, Texas and Vanderbilt were kept out and really weren’t given much thought. The committee had already determined that BYU would need to beat Texas Tech to make it in, with their loss they were out too. This left 2 spots for Miami, Alabama and Notre Dame. 

The committee made very clear that they were not going to punish teams (except BYU) for losing their conference championship game. Doing so would set a dangerous precedent, possibly leading to teams opting out of conference championship games to ensure a playoff spot. There has been a lot of talk by the talking heads of major news networks about how this played out. But I truly believe that it is quite simple. 

As stated, the committee was not going to punish teams for losing in a conference championship game. This guaranteed that Alabama was in. All that was left was to compare Miami and Notre Dame. With the BYU loss, these two were essentially the #12 and #13 ranked teams. If they are only one spot apart, head to head has to matter. And it did this time. Miami simply jumped Notre Dame because the BYU loss allowed their win in Week 1 to matter. Notre Dame is going to cry and complain about this for years, because that’s who they are. But it is really so simple for them. Win your ranked games or join and then win a conference. There really is no other way around it. Guarantee yourself a spot in a conference, but if you don’t want to do that, don’t complain when the committee doesn’t bow down to your wishes. 

I genuinely don’t like how SEC heavy this playoff is, but there is nothing I can do about it. I am focusing on the positives in this, which is that there are some matchups and potential matchups I am really excited about. The thought of Oregon vs Texas Tech or a rematch of Ole Miss vs Georgia has me on the edge of my seat. I also wouldn’t put it past James Madison or Tulane to put up a damn good fight in the first round. Yes, these may be the two least talented teams in the playoff. But this is their chance to play with the big boys. They’re going to come out guns blazing with trick plays, aggression and excitement. If Oregon or Ole Miss start out flat or don’t take them seriously, look out. I cannot wait to see how it all plays out.