By Derek Lee
We are officially 3 days from the national championship. Miami vs Indiana. Big 10 vs ACC. Miami, Florida. It’s been 6 years since the last time the ACC had a team in the last game of the year. The Big 10 has been a staple in the national championship game for the past decade. Which team and which conference will take home the trophy?
Miami will essentially have a home game for the national championship. This is the first time in history that a team has played in a national championship game at their home stadium. But will they be able to outnumber the Indiana fans, a school who has over 800,000 alumni in the United States? The Hurricanes march into Hard Rock Stadium following wins against Texas A&M, Ohio State and Ole Miss. They have won in multiple ways throughout the playoffs as well. Against the Aggies, they won a tight, defensive slugfest in windy conditions 10-3. In the quarterfinals they continued their defensive dominance by holding the reigning national champions to 14 points and scoring a pick six of their own. Against Ole Miss, they needed to rely much more heavily on Carson Beck and their offense, driving down to score a go ahead touchdown with 18 seconds remaining on the clock.
These wins did not come without costs though. 3 key players were injured in their game against Ole Miss including defensive starters Ahmad Moten and Ahkeem Mesidor. Their status’ are currently unknown for Monday night. One player whose status is known is Xavier Lucas. The starting defensive back will miss the first half of the national championship game due to a controversial targeting call in the semifinal game against Ole Miss.
Indiana will travel to South Beach after absolutely pummeling their first two opponents in the College Football Playoff. They thumped Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl and casually followed it up by dropping a fifty burger on Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, their defense is nasty and they are lead by one of the best coaches in the nation in Curt Cignetti.
Fernando Mendoza has been excellent so far in the postseason. So excellent that he actually has more touchdowns thrown than incompletions in the first two playoff games. If he is even half as good as he has been, Miami has slim to no chance in this game. Indiana wants to come out hot and fast, with Miami being down possibly 3 DBs in the first half of this game, will they be able to keep it close enough to be within sight of Indiana in the second half?
This game is a contrast of two very different but somehow similar styles. Miami is offensively built on ground and pound, controlling the ball and controlling tempo. Indiana is built in the trenches as well but they have an element of explosiveness that Miami just does not quite have. Indiana will take a shot at any time, whether its 1st and 10, 5 minutes into the game, or up by 20 with 5 minutes left in the game.
The Hoosiers average 461 yards per game and 40 points per game. They convert on 58% of their third downs and average 6.5 yards per play. Mendoza is average 9.6 yards per dropback, an insane stat. They average 3.7 points per drive and have an explosive play rate of nearly 14%. All of these stats point to an offensive juggernaut, an absolute behemoth of an offense. They were able to rack of these stats and have this success even with 4 games of 27 or fewer points. When this offense is clicking, good luck.
Miami not only prides themselves on their run game and offensive line, but also the tenacity of their defense. They rank 13th in the nation in sack percentage at 8.64%, 8th in yards per rush at 3.0 and 5th in opponent rush yards per game at 89 yards per game. Their pass defense is not quite as excellent, ranking 50th at 214 yards per game, 31st in opponent completion percentage at 59% and 34th in opponent interceptions thrown. With possibly missing 3 DBs in the first half of this game, how will they keep Mendoza under control?
Miami’s key to winning is ball control. Can they keep the ball away from Mendoza and Indiana’s high powered offense? They are going to need to be successful in the run, putting together double digit play drives like they have done in the first 3 games of the playoffs. Expect them to feature both backs, Mark Fletcher Jr. and CharMar Brown. If they are able to convert on third down and drive down the field, limiting Mendoza’s chances, it will be because of their run game.
On the flip side, if Miami comes out slow, Carson Beck will need to carry the load. And against this Indiana defense who ranks 2nd nationally in points per game (11.9), 4th in yards per game (274.1) an 11th in opponent yards per game at (4.6). Carson Beck will not be able to win this game alone, if Indiana goes up big in the first half, they could run away with it quickly. Miami will need to run the ball, and run it effectively to waste clock and limit the Hoosiers’ scoring opportunities.
I expect Indiana to do a lot of the same as what they’ve been doing. They are going to come out fast and aggressive. Especially with the defensive injuries for Miami, they will look to attack their depleted secondary and push the ball downfield. This isn’t to say they will abandon their run game, because they won’t. Indiana has a stable of running backs with Roman Hemby rushing for over 1,000 yards, Kaelon Black with 961 and Khobie Martin with 505 rushing yards. But with Miami looking as thin as they currently do on the back end, I expect Mendoza and his exciting trio of receivers to have a big day.
Who will be able to play their style of game and who will have to adjust? I would not be shocked to see Miami come out fired up and stay in this game early on. However, they will need to play a PERFECT game to come out on top. They had plenty of mistakes and uncharacteristic penalties against Ole Miss. Will they be able to handle the emotions of playing in a national championship game in their home stadium?
Will Indiana continue to steamroll teams as they have done this postseason? WIll they be able to weather the storm that Miami is sure to bring? Can they stop the run, put Miami behind the sticks and let their pass rushers pin their ears back and get after Carson Beck? I think yes.
I expect that Miami keeps this game close for a half, but eventually runs out of gas, allowing some big plays that Indiana will take advantage of. This game will be close at half, but I expect Indiana to run away with it in the second, winning it 31-17, for the Hoosiers’ first ever national championship.